Predictions: Did It Happen?

February 8, 2011. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner says the U.S. is in no danger of losing its Aaa debt rating. “’Absolutely not,’” Geithner said, when asked in an ABC News interview whether a downgrade is a concern. “‘That will never happen to this country,'” as quoted in Bloomberg News.

Was he right?

No. Six months later, S&P downgraded U.S. debt to AA+.

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January 4, 2011. Walmart CEO Bill Simon predicts “serious” inflation in coming months clothing, food and other products. “We’re seeing cost increases starting to come through at a pretty rapid rate,” he told USA Today.

Was he right?

The overall inflation rate for 2011 was 3.4 percent. Up from 1.5 percent for 2010. Doesn’t seem serious, but actually a 3.4 percent inflation rate means prices double every approximately 20 years. Among other things, that’s demeaning to ole’ George Washington’s face on the dollar bill. Blame the folks at the Fed for that.

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July 21, 2011. Jeff Reeves, editor of InvestorPlace, writing in MarketWatch.com. The title of his article: “Why We’ll Have 10% Unemployment Soon.”

Was he right?

No. Unemployment now stands at 8.5 percent. Still way too high for comfort, but substantially lower than Mr. Reeves’ prediction.

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